Monday, April 5, 2010

Big breakthrough unlikely in Sino-India ties

India and China begin crucial bilateral talks on Tuesday and Beijing's support to Pakistan is in for some scrutiny. Experts say that if China does not budge on the issue of issuing stapled visas to Kashmiris, India too should take a tough stand.

But Chinese analysts are warning India not to expect any major breakthrough on the issue of stapled visas for Kashmiris as External Affairs Minister SM Krishna begins two days of talks with Chinese leaders in Beijing.

"I don't think China is going to compromise on this because if it does it will send very wrong signal to the Pakistanis and will be a signal that China is changing its position on the issue of Kashmir," says Dr Li Ming Jiang, assistant professor at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University.




Dr Li a former diplomatic correspondent for China's Xinhua news agency. He told CNN-IBN in Singapore that stapled visas underscores Beijing's view that Kashmir is disputed and gives it leverage in border talks with India. He also accused India of colluding with the US.

"Indian leaders have asked the US to check the influence of China. Chinese interpret such actions as containment of China. Specifically they are worried about the Indo-US nuclear deal. But China is still watching if the Indo-US alliance intensifies. If it does then Chinese will come with counter-measures," says Dr Li.

But India is not without cards to play in this game.

"If China is going to be so difficult on this issue needlessly and provocatively, then India needs to think of a suitable means of retaliation. Perhaps India should deal differently with the Tibetan community and allow them more leeway," says South Asia analyst Sumit Ganguly.

So as Krishna meets Chinese leaders to commemorate 60 years of ties another irritant has been added to the already suspicious relationship. It will be interesting to see how India responds if China refuses to budge.