Studies fuel India’s emission case

OUR SPECIAL CORRESPONDENT

India’s per capita emissions of earth-warming greenhouse gases in 2030 will be well below the global average 25 years earlier, the first rigorous mathematical predictions of the country’s future emissions suggest. Four independent models, including one jointly developed at Calcutta’s Jadavpur University, released by the government today indicate that India’s per capita emissions in 2030 will range from 2.77 tonnes to 3.9 tonnes — below the global average of 4.22 tonnes in 2005. A fifth model from The Energy and Resources Institute (Teri), New Delhi, predicts a slightly higher per capita figure of 5 tonnes. The five studies were part of an effort to generate science-based Indian estimates of the country’s greenhouse gas emissions ahead of the international conference on climate change in Copenhagen in December. “The debate on emissions has until now been pushed by research from the developed countries that does not capture India-specific or developing-country realities,” said Prodipto Ghosh, a fellow at Teri. “Implausible (emission) results have been cited to portray a steep rise in India’s emissions,” Ghosh said. Some western experts have projected that by 2030, India’s per capita emissions will rise to 8-12 tonnes, he added. “But they have never backed their projections with details of their models. We have provided very detailed information about our models. If anyone wants to question these figures, they need to share equal level of details,” Ghosh told The Telegraph. All five studies also show steady improvement in India’s energy efficiency. “These results are not based on a ‘do-nothing’ strategy,” said environment and forests minister Jairam Ramesh. “Embedded here are a series of energy efficiency strategies with different sets of assumptions.” “Our model takes into account technology changes, energy efficiency and the behavioural response of producers and consumers,” said Joyashree Roy, professor of economics at the Global Change Programme at Jadavpur University, a team member who worked on one of the models jointly with the National Council for Applied Economic Research, New Delhi. “We’ve now got our own rigorous, model-based figures to challenge guesstimates by western researchers,” she added. India, which is under intense pressure from developed countries to accept targets for reductions in emissions, has pledged that its per capita emissions will never exceed those of the developed countries. The five models assume domestic growth figures between 7 per cent and 9 per cent, and factor in a steady growth in the contribution of nuclear energy to India’s energy basket. But coal is expected to remain a key source of energy over the next two decades.